WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast December 7, 2018

"Countries participating in the agreement will have to cut their combined output by at least 1 million bpd from the October 2018 level in order to have a meaningful bullish effect on oil prices".

Although Russia, the largest producer in the wider group known as OPEC+, agreed to a cut in principle, the eventual size of their contribution remains undefined and will be key to putting together the final deal.

Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, says some members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have been complaining that Libya and Nigeria are overproducing.

Mohammed Hamad al-Rumhy, Oman's oil and gas minister, said Wednesday of the production cut expected at Thursday's meeting that "we haven't discussed the numbers". He said that they don't think that the U.S. will benefit from an over-supplied market for an extended period of time where investment flow stops and the fantastic growth in USA stale and is brought to a halt again just like in 2015-2016.

Russia's oil giant Lukoil said it's ready to cut production if the upcoming meeting results in a deal to prop up prices, the company's CEO Vagit Alekperov told reporters, according to TASS news agency.

America turned into a net oil exporter last week, breaking 75 years of continued dependence on foreign oil and marking a pivotal - even if likely brief - moment toward what U.S. President Donald Trump has branded as "energy independence".

While ministers met in OPEC's Vienna headquarters, Trump tweeted that the "world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!" Production at 11.7 million bpd is more than what each of Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia pumped in November, although the Saudis are also expected to have reached record highs in their production last month.

Oil prices fell 1 percent on Wednesday, weighed down by swelling USA inventories and a plunge in global stock markets as China's government warned of increasing economic headwinds.

The uncertainty over possible production cuts caused oil prices to dip on Wednesday as investors wait on a decision. One of the key questions in Thursday's talks is whether to exempt Iran from having to cut production, as its energy industry is already hobbled by US sanctions on its crude exports.


OPEC meets on Thursday in Vienna, followed by talks with allies such as Russian Federation on Friday.

Otherwise, he added, the USA official has adopted an unprofessional, naïve, and meddlesome approach.

"We must be excluded from any decision to cut production as long as illegal United States sanctions are not lifted", Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on Wednesday evening as he arrived in Vienna. The OPEC-Russia alliance was made necessary in 2016 to compete with the vastly increased production of oil by the United States in recent years.

Iran is now subject to USA sanctions and as such won't participate in any curbs, the country's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh said.

"The oil cut will be between 1.0 and 1.3 million bpd".

"The big unknown is how President Trump will react to any production cuts", said analysts at ING.

"They should know that OPEC is not part of their Secretary of Energy", said its minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.

Negotiations between OPEC members are fraught, as some feel that Saudi Arabia wields too much clout in setting policy.


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